Over the last few weeks, there has been plenty of speculation and even a 'report' that the Twins are planning on shopping Delmon Young this off-season to help clear up their log-jam in the outfield. It also would, hypothetically, allow the Twins to shore up a bigger need on the team. The reason I put report in quotes is because it came from Sid Hartman. The last time that guy had a rumor that was correct, I wasn't even born yet. Now, while Hartman is often incorrect, the Twins have been rumored to be considering shopping Young since before Sid's article, so it's very possible Sid simply used someone else's ideas to write his article.
Let me get this out in the open: It would be a terrible decision to trade Delmon Young right now. If the Twins trade Delmon Young, it is going to go down as one of the biggest blunders in Twins history. If the Twins do in fact trade DY, I would really appreciate one of my readers pointing this out five years from now, whether I'm right or wrong.
Yes, Delmon Young struggled this year. He was among the worst defensive left fielders in all of baseball, and his OPS was the worst among the AL left fielders who qualified for a batting title. The only problem with using those statistics is that it doesn't tell the whole story.
In April, Delmon Young hit .265/.306/.314, good for an abysmal .620 OPS. In May, he was still very poor, hitting just .264/.339/.358, which was a .697 OPS. Apparently, after two months, something clicked for Mr. Delmon Young. As the weather warmed up, Delmon's stats got markedly better. In June, Young hit .321/.341/.476, good for an .817 OPS, a 200 point improvement from April. July saw Young hit .330/.359/.454. Then, August came.
Right as it seemed Delmon was beginning to silence his critics and was ready to break out, he entered a month long slump. During the month of August, Delmon hit .245/.309/.398. Even with this slump, his August was still better than April and May, so it was hard for people to say he wasn't improved from the beginning of the year. September saw Delmon again break out, hitting .330/.368/.455, which was his best month as a Twin.
When the season began, Delmon Young had been draped with unrealistic expectations by the local media. Being compared to Frank Robinson was foolish, and to run a commercial in which Delmon Young was asking for advice from some of the greatest Twins' hitters proved to be misguided. The local media was understandably hard on Mr. Young because he failed to be Albert Pujols this past season.
Delmon finished the season hitting .290/.336/.405, but he hit .305/.330/.442 over the last 4 months. If it wasn't for his terrible slump in August, Young would have finished closer to .320/.350/.450, as a 22 year old. Those are solid numbers for a corner outfielder, but the fact that he's 22 years old and got a lot better as the season progressed suggests that he has a lot of time to grow into a more productive hitter. Now, I don't think Delmon will ever become a 30+ home run threat like was originally thought, because he hits way to high of a percentage of his balls on the ground. So, unless Delmon changes his approach at the plate, I think the best case scenario for Young is a 20-25 home run season, and even that might be a bit high.
That said, he has good speed, and he does have a lot of power, so he could easily improve upon his extra base hit total. As Young gets more patient at the plate, which tends to happen as a player gets older, he should get better pitches to hit. I don't think Young's plate discipline will get a lot better, but it should improve nonetheless and that will improve his overall numbers. I also believe his defense will improve, since this was his first season in left field. Moving from right field to left field in the major leagues is a lot tougher than it would seem, because you need to learn to read the tail of the ball completely differently.
I will predict right now that Delmon Young is good for a .310/.350/.480 season as soon as next year, if he stays healthy and remains on the Twins. If the Twins trade Delmon Young, it will be a colossal mistake. While I'm sure a large chunk of Twins fans disagree, feel free to comment below with what you would do with Delmon Young this off-season.
11 comments:
I agree with that the Twins shouldn't trade Delmon, and would much prefer they trade Kubel if they trade any of the OF. However, I wouldn't go so far as to say it would be a huge blunder without knowing who they can get in return. Like, if they can get Jake Peavy for example, I think it would significantly soften the blow. If, instead, they get a middle reliever, then that would be a huge waste.
I think it'd take something Delmon Young and two of our young starters as a starting point to get Peavy, unless the Padres are a lot higher on Young than I think most teams will be since he struggled.
But I do agree, if Delmon is traded in a package to get the Twins Peavy, it wouldn't be a blunder, I just don't see that as a possibility.
Yea, probably not, especially considering what other teams will probably have to offer. Regardless, I'd much prefer the Twins hold on to him than not. He still has plenty of time to develop, and plenty of talent. On the other hand, I think Kubel is pretty close to his ceiling at this point.
I would keep Young and not trade him. He just turned 23 and it will be his second year in Minnesota. For Kubel I would still give him another couple years. He has improved over the last two years with more playing time, so I believe he still has not reached his full potential yet. The one guy I would sell high on now is Span. He is not known for his power and that would not fit into a corner outfield spot. A lot of teams are looking for young speedy MLB ready CFs and would be a great trade chip.
Delmon's not going anywhere. Why would they trade the guy who was 3rd on the team in hitting. And that arm of his saved more runs than anyone seems to recognize. Was I the only one watching the games? Look at the game log. Look at the day to day log. Very rare did he not have a hit in a game. And in some cases, he was either the only one who had a hit or close to it. To say Delmon's a bad fielder is crappy at best. He changed positions in a place where the ceiling is the same color as the ball. lol. Throughout baseball, everyone has said left field in the baggy dome is the hardest position to play period. Give the guy a break. He still lead the team in outfield assists. And eliminated a lot of runners from advancing in any form period. What more could you ask for? He missed a few balls in the outfield. So what. At least he was able to get close enough to try to make a play. RBI's? In the stats on mlb.com, you can look to see how many times a player led off the inning or how many times a player comes up with the bases empty. Delmon damn near led off an inning more than the Twins leadoff hitter and rarely came to the plate with people on. Honestly... who bats a .290 hitter on that team 6th or 7th. He didn't suck all year people. It's the failure of Ron to recognize this. It could have been much better for the team batting him behind Morneau. Or having him bat 2nd for that matter. Anyone who remembers when he came up to visit his brother in Comerica National Park and stunned the pro's looking on when he took batting practice launching ball after ball out of THAT place will realize he can hit 30 homers. That is if Ron lets any of his players swing for the fences. You have to remember Ron doesn't give the green light on that to just anyone. Not to mention... Delmon hit the longest homer this year at the baggy dome. Thats right folks. Look it up!
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/
Why not trade Cuddyer? Lets face it. He's had one season where he was reasonable. Other than that. Nothing. Has anyone grounded into more double plays in the last 5 years than Cuddyer? He's a rally killer. And his fielding? lol. Did you miss the ball ending up on his hat and the rest of the blunders in the outfield? He's the slowest of the outfielders by a damn sight. You can have a high fielding percentage if you never get to the ball. Delmon, Denard, and Carlos all got to impossible balls. Sometimes it worked. Sometimes it didn't. But they were there. And when they were not there, someone was behind them backing them up.
Kubel... this kid is amazing. Well... when they let him play that is. Do you have any idea how hard it is to come off the bench and have a productive season? Much less almost lead the team in homeruns. Let the kid play.
The whole platooning people in general sucks. Playing the odds doesn't really work. Why? Because your putting people in that come off the bench. Not to mention, if a guy is hitting .200 off leftys how will he get a chance to improve upon that if he never see's a lefty again? There is a lot of luck involved in those averages. Don't think so? How can one guy go batting .200 off lefty's to batting over .300 the next year while hitting .200 to right handers? Look it up. Just about everyone does this.
Ship Cuddyer off to anyone who will take him and hope we get at least a good AA prospect in return. Let Kubel play everyday. And move Delmon up in the lineup.
Kubel has been playing baseball since he was probably 5 years old. He hasn't hit lefties since his first year in the minors, so if he hasn't learned it yet, he probably never will.
Kubel was the Twins third best hitter, not DY, though. Young was actually among the worst Twins hitters over the full season, since batting average really isn't a good measure of someone's offensive production.
However, after DY's horrible first two months he was very good. His defense will never be better than average, regardless of his arm strength, much like Cuddyer. The reason it would be foolish to trade Cuddyer this off-season is because he has no trade value. If he somehow hits .280 with 20 HR this season, he's a solid bat and his trade value goes up considerably.
While I would prefer to see Cuddyer traded, I don't think he has any trade value and therefore the Twins will hold onto him since the team's payroll situation is just fine. It's looking more and more like all 5 OF/DH types will stay.
I think Bob about summed it up. Delmon should stay, no doubt. I also agree that Cuddyer sould go. Our outfield is covered. Delmon in left, Gomez in center, Span in right, and Kubel to be the utility outfielder/DH would be pretty nice. The Twins' front office has bigger worries ahead of them. Instead of worrying about an overabundance of outfielders, worry about the lack of power at the hot corner (Adrian Beltre would be amazing in a Twins uniform).
Move Cuddyer to third. He might struggle defensively at third at first, but it can't be much worse than what's there now. With the ridiculous amount of pitching talent ready to break into the pros, use some of it to trade for JJ Hardy. This would solve the SS issue, the 3B issue and the outfield issue. Hardy is a solid bat with solid defense. He'd fit in great with the Twins. Besides, I don't want to see my Young jersey become obsolete after only one year.
http://twinsguy1.blogspot.com/2008/10/michael-cuddyer-back-to-third.html
I just can't take a guy seriously who refuses to take hitting advice/coaching from the Twins hitting coach, Joe Vavra. DY only listens to his father and older brother Dmitri for advice. He has the two watch film of him, and they phone in advice. He's a stubborn ass in the clubhouse, too. He has enormous talent, yes. But I just don't think he plays a Twins brand of baseball.
I like how Seth Stohs has created this Peavy idea, and how much it has spread. Maybe Jake himself will see all the comments and give some consideration to an AL team... that'd be nice.
i agree with bob, i think that young will be much more productive then cuddyer offensively, also young has an arm just as strong as cuddyer for playing field, delmon has plenty of room for improvement but face it he's 22 years old, twins trade him they will regret it
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