Let the record show that I have been a fan of Jason Kubel since his horrific knee injury way back in 2004. Ron Gardenhire's failure to use him correctly over the past two seasons (prior to this season) wasn't as well documented as it should have been, but it did get some attention from at least the blogging community. His knee injury cost him a year of service time and Kubel will no doubt be very affordable next season and the Twins likely won't need to make a major decision over the next two years regarding Kubel.
Jason Kubel was without a doubt the Twins third best hitter this season, and was really the only other power threat the team had behind Justin Morneau all season. Gardy seems to finally have settled on Kubel as the team's DH, and he seems penciled in to start opening day in the middle of the Twins order. However, it's no secret the Twins have a glut of OF/DH types, and will likely need to trade at least one of those players to keep everyone happy.
The Twins have three outfield spots and a designated hitter spot to split between 5 players; Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. Delmon Young clearly didn't live up to expectations this season, and likely will never develop into the 35+ home run power that people expected to see when he was traded here. That said, Delmon is a productive left fielder right now, and at just 22 years old he has plenty of time to get much, much better. Delmon Young probably has quite a bit of trade value, but not the same amount he had at this time last season, and I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to give up on him after just one season.
Carlos Gomez wasn't ready for the big leagues on opening day, but the Twins rushed him to the majors anyways feeling it was best for his development. While it's unknown if that was indeed the best way for him to develop, Gomez was the league's best defensive center fielder and showed promise on several occasions last season. His poor plate discipline is frustrating to watch, but his defense and speed make him at least a decent starter at this point in his career, and if his bat develops like many expect it to Gomez will be an elite center fielder possibly as soon as next season. The Twins likely have made Gomez untouchable, and that's the right decision in my opinion.
Denard Span spent the first few months of last season breaking out in AAA before injuries gave Span a chance to prove he was worthy of a first round selection way back in 2002. Span didn't disappoint, showing much improved plate discipline and quite a bit more power than his minor league track record had suggested he would be capable of. Span impressed even his biggest critics this season, and he seems to be a corners stone to build around for the foreseeable future. His defense is also elite, which gives the Twins two elite defenders for quite some time in the new stadium.
Michael Cuddyer was given a 3 year, $24 million extension this past off-season, and rewarded the Twins for locking him up by getting hurt in basically every crazy way imaginable. Cuddyer had a very forgettable year this season, hitting .249/.330/.369 in 71 games. Cuddyer's defense is very overrated and has been for a few years since his move to the outfield, in large part thanks to his very strong arm. He has a great arm, but his range is below average and he is no better than a league average right fielder defensively, regardless of what the local media thinks. While Cuddyer would be the best player to trade, the fact that he's still due $6.75 million in 2009 and $8.5 million in 2010, with a $10.5 million club option in 2011, makes him close to worthless in a trade after his season this year. The Twins will need to hope Cuddyer can return to the solid, right handed bat he has been the last two years when he was healthy.
That leaves Jason Kubel. Kubel likely doesn't have the same trade value as Delmon Young, even though he is clearly the better player at this point in his career. Kubel is coming off a season in which he hit .272/.335/.471 in 141 games, getting 463 at bats. He was among the Twins best hitters this season, but often times the Twins were forced to pinch hit for Kubel late in the game when a team would insert a left handed reliever, because Kubel struggles against lefties. Kubel hit .232/.330/.374 this past season against lefties, good for an OPS of .704. Those stats are eerily similar to Jacque Jones career numbers, and seem to suggest Kubel is used best as a platoon player. I believe Kubel has more value then most platoon players would, because he hits righties so well, but nonetheless won't have the trade value to get the Twins a young star, which Delmon Young probably could.
However, trading Kubel will allow the Twins to keep their young, upcoming outfield intact and will give Michael Cuddyer and his $8 million salary a starting spot rather than a platoon spot in the lineup. What could the Twins use? An upgrade in the bullpen would be great, especially if Pat Neshek's injury ends up being more serious than first believed, or a shortstop. I don't think Kubel will be able to get the Twins a shortstop that's better than the free agents I detailed a few posts below, so I would suggest the Twins send Kubel to a team that needs a LF for a solid reliever.
The average LF in the American League hit .267/.336/.430, and the average LF in the National League hit .271/.350/.453 Also, the average AL DH hit .256/.339/.435, so Jason Kubel was undoubtedly above average on the offensive side at either position, but was a better AL LF or DH than an NL one, so I think he may have more value among AL teams. If Kubel is seen as a LF, he is a large upgrade from Delmon Young, but as stated earlier Young should develop more next season and should be a better hitter than Kubel over the next few years, even if he doesn't develop the power many expected.
The Kansas City Royals would be an interesting team for the Twins to consider shopping Kubel to. While Kansas City played David DeJesus in LF most of this season and he was very good, the Royals CF play was abysmal, combining to post an OPS under .600, thanks mostly to Joey Gathright's best Juan Pierre impression. The Royals could undoubtedly improve their offense by moving DeJesus back to Center and giving Kubel the job full time in LF. The Royals are also a rare team to trade with because they have a very strong bullpen, something you rarely see in a weak team. The Royals have Joakim Soria, Ramon Ramirez, Jimmy Gobble, Ron Mahay, Robinson Tejada and Leo Nunez in their bullpen currently. Soria seems to be the only one the team would deem untouchable, and Gobble is probably more available now than ever after posting an ERA of 8.81 this season.
The Twins likely wouldn't have interest in Ron Mahay due to his age, but swapping Kubel for any of Ramon Ramirez, Robinson Tejada or Leo Nunez would be something the Twins should seriously consider. I would prefer Nunez, but any of the 3 would be a big upgrade over what the Twins currently have in their bullpen and could give the Twins one of the best bullpens in baseball next season if Neshek returns healthy and Jose Mijares continues to develop like he has.
While Twins fans may be upset at first with a trade of the team's third best hitter for a no-name reliever coming from one of the worst team's in the league, it would be best for the Twins future, and likely wouldn't hurt the team too badly in the short run. Jason Kubel killed the Twins this season against lefties, and Cuddyer doesn't seem like the kind of player who can hit well in spot duty. If the Twins want to get the most out of their investment in Cuddyer, they would probably be better off handing him the DH job and getting a very good, young reliever to shore up the bullpen over the next few years.
So, call me crazy, but I would love to see the Twins trade Jason Kubel to the Royals for one of their young talented relievers. What do you think, Twins fans? How do you think the Twins should fix their log jam in the outfield/DH spots? Comment below, and let me know what you guys would do.
9 comments:
you have got to be kidding me?!?! trade kubel for a reliever. with the bullpen they have now they still have the best bullpen in the league with neshek. they have been and always will.
As a Royals fan, I would do this in a heartbeat, but I think you're way underselling Kubel and overestimating how difficult it is to find a good reliever. Heck, we got Tejada off waivers this summer. We got Ramirez for cash. You would give Kubel up for that?
I think a Kubel for Teahen trade makes more sense. Maybe Kubel/Bonser for Teahen/Nunez?
Jake - Even with Neshek, the Twins are far from the best bullpen in the league. Guerrier is on the downside of his career, the talk of him being overworked last year was incorrect. Guerrier threw more innings in 2007, and was close to his 2008 total in 2006. Assuming Neshek is going to just come back in the Spring and be a stud again is the same ill-advised hope that people had with Liriano this past season, and we saw how long it took for him.
Now, I may have sold Kubel's value quite a bit short, but if the Twins can get a package centered around a good reliever, I think they may consider it. His splits against righties and lefties are definitely something to worry about.
Max - Kubel is a good hitter. However, there are solid DH types every year available at this time, the Twins just haven't signed the right players. I would have no problems with Kubel remaining a Twin, but I think you are underestimating how tough it is to find a good reliever. The Royals have done a great job in recent years, but they are the minority, not the majority.
A Teahan/Bonser addition doesn't make much sense in my opinion, since Teahan looks like nothing more than a bench player and the Twins have plenty of corner IF/OF bench types, while I think Bonser could be very solid out of the bullpen next season.
Thanks for the comments though guys, the idea of trading Kubel was meant more to start a discussion than anything else.
I really like this idea, but if we made a move like this, how would we be able to aquire a third basemen??
Neshek's injury wasn't as bad as Liriano's, was it? If Neshek can come back healthy and if we have at least one more reliable reliever to go with Nathan, Neshek, Mijares, and Breslow, WATCH OUT!!!
I think if the Twins want to get a 3B (Beltre, preferably) they'll need to give up a young starter, like Perkins or Blackburn. The problem with trading our OF surplus for a reliever would be that we'd need to find an alternative way to get a SS here, since none of the free agents seem like viable options.
Neshek's injury was not as serious as Liriano's, but was shut down because if his UCL tore another little bit, he would have had the same problem Liriano did and needed Tommy John. Neshek's injury is expected to have him at full strength by opening day, I just think it may take him a few weeks or months to gain his confidence back. Also, the injury may end up re-occuring and he would need Tommy John and miss the year, although that is unlikely at this point.
It's an interesting idea. But I was curious what the Pohlad family has said regarding the 2009 payroll (if anything)? The 2008 Twins greatly exceeded everyone's expectations and looks to be well on track to be a very, very good team in 2010 when they move into Target Field.
Hopefully the Pohlad's will give the payroll a bump and allow Bill Smith to chase a free agent reliever - or two. Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were simply atrocious down the stretch and it would be a mistake to give them a free pass.
If the Twins could fix the bullen via free agency, they could then use Jason Kubel (or Michael Cuddyer) to trade for a third baseman or shortstop.
Gotta give you props, though, Jake. Most Twins fans seem to think their #1 priority is to add a stick; most likely a third baseman. You see it correctly in that the bullpen is absolutely the #1 priority this winter. No question about it. It's the only reason they didn't win the division.
I totally agree with getting rid of one of the five, and Kubel does seem to be the right choice. You can't give up Young Gomez and Span because they all have so much upside, and you are right that we could get next to nothing for Cuddy. Im just thinking for Leo Nunez?? No way. We need to find some established, top line reliever if we are going to do that straight up. Another thing too, if the twins were to trade Kubel, it would be a MUST to go out and get a power bat. I was thinking something like this. Maybe combine the beltre/Blackburn trade with a Kubel/reliver.
so..
Blackburn
Kubel
Beltre
reliver (dont really know who, do you think rowland-smith or putz would be too much? maybe twins throw in a low level prospect to land putz or rowland-smith?)
What do you think?
Post a Comment